A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
